The impact of COVID-19 on economic growth: evidence from a Bayesian Panel Vector Autoregressive (BPVAR) model

This paper explores the impact on macroeconomy for certain OECD economies exposed to COVID-19 pandemic shock. The analysis employs a panel of countries, spanning period March 2020 January 2021. It also uses two proxies shocks: i) total confirmed incidences/cases and ii) deaths while using Bayesian Panel Vector Autoregressive (BPVAR) method. findings document that shock exerts strong negative effect industrial production. Considering how such epidemic shocks affect expectations economic participants, questions their absence in accounting forthcoming growth-related incidences.